You can’t go on the Kindle Boards or read some of Publishing’s most influential blogs lately without running across an article about the falling prices of ebooks.

Nathan Bransford, the former literary agent, gives his take on pricing: http://blog.nathanbransford.com/2011/03/amanda-hocking-and-99-cent-kindle.html

On BoingBoing, the question is asked, Will all digital books eventually cost 99 cents?

On The Technium, the author talks about why he believes all books will eventually be priced at .99. He cites Konrath.

(Let’s take a little detour for a moment here. I have some trouble with the example because it doesn’t take into consideration the difference in royalties paid at the different prices. According to his blog, Joe Konrath’s book The List was selling 40 copies per day at a price of $2.99. He then reduced the price to .99 and is selling 620. That’s a huge difference in quantity sold. However, as you’ll see, it makes a smaller difference in royalties earned.

At the original price, Joe Konrath was earning 70% of 40×2.99, or $83.72
At the new price, Joe is earning 35% of .99×620, or $214.83

Yes, at the new price, Joe is earning more than twice he was, but he’s not earning the $613 per day the Technium’s blog poster would lead you to believe.)

End of detour. Now back to the original topic…
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And finally, on irreaderreview.com, the author askes “What happens if ebook prices drop to the $1 to $5 range?”

So many folks, making so many theories/guesses/speculations about the future of ebooks.

What do I think? I’ll tell you.
I have no magic mirror or crystal ball. The market is shifting, adapting as consumers, readers change their buying habits. Will prices nosedive? Will all books end up selling for $.99? Will the market become saturated, causing further erosion of prices? Will readers eventually, after buying one too many low priced, poorly written wall-banger, start associating low prices with poor quality?

I think we’re all trying to guess where things are heading, we’re all hoping we know how to adapt, but the fact of the matter is, nobody knows. I will say this: ebooks and ebook readers are finally getting the attention they deserve. After years of waiting, anticipating this day (as an epublished author), its finally come. And I’m glad. I’m happy for the opportunities the Kindle and Nook are opening up for authors and for publishers both.

Will there be some growing pains as the market shifts and changes? Absolutely. But to me, the publishing industry/market is like a growing child. It’s going through phases, swinging one way and then another. And those authors, publishers or distributors–who are lucky enough to anticipate the fickle child’s next move will be fortunate enough to reap the rewards. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon how you look at it) I don’t believe things will settle down and stabilize for a while yet.

Interesting times, indeed. IMO the secret is flexibility. Keep your eyes and ears open. Bend. Adapt.

And, of course, write one great book and then another and another.